Model intelligence
Monte Carlo capital model
Select a parameter set and a completed run from Railway to see the latest survival probability, cash percentiles, and capital gating signals.
Assumptions
Inputs below reflect the selected parameter set. Adjustments are local for scenario review. For new runs, use the password-protected run console.
Railway data source
Outputs are pulled from the Railway model tables. Choose a completed run to refresh the charts and summary.
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Outputs
Survival probability
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Horizon
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Min cash p5
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Min cash p50
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Min cash p95
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Ending cash p50
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Ending cash p5
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Ending cash p95
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Peak members p50
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Avg MLR p50
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Ops PMPM p50
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Reinsurance cost p50
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Cash percentiles
Membership percentiles
MLR and reinsurance cost (p50)
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