Model intelligence

Monte Carlo capital model

Select a parameter set and a completed run from Railway to see the latest survival probability, cash percentiles, and capital gating signals.

Inputs below reflect the selected parameter set. Adjustments are local for scenario review. For new runs, use the password-protected run console.

Railway data source

Outputs are pulled from the Railway model tables. Choose a completed run to refresh the charts and summary.

Open simple model Open run console

Parameter set Completed run

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Survival probability -

Viability score (gates passed) -

Overall viability status -

Solvency gate -

Pricing/MLR gate -

Market value gate -

Return gate -

Horizon -

Payback probability (<= 36 months) -

Median payback month (p50) -

Estimated margin -

Min cash p5 -

Min cash p50 -

Min cash p95 -

Ending cash p50 -

Ending cash p5 -

Ending cash p95 -

Peak members p50 -

Avg MLR p50 -

Ops PMPM p50 -

Reinsurance cost p50 -

View business plan

Return gate payback probability uses a quantile-interpolation proxy from stored cash percentiles.

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