Target survivability

99%+ survival scenario

This scenario combines higher initial capitalization, disciplined premium trend, and conservative claims volatility to target 99%+ solvency over 10 years.

Scenario results

The scenario below is a calibrated, investor-facing baseline. It shows the capital posture and risk management required to hold survivability above 99%.

Survival probability -
Horizon -
Min cash p5 -
Min cash p50 -
Min cash p95 -
Ending cash p50 -
Peak members p50 -
Avg MLR p50 -
Ops PMPM p50 -
Reinsurance cost p50 -
Projected value (12x EBITDA) -
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Parameter details

These are the exact inputs used in the 99% survival scenario. Adjustments in the run console will generate a new output profile.

Cash percentiles

Membership trajectory (p50)

MLR and reinsurance cost (p50)

Sensitivity (tornado)

Tornado bars show the impact of a +/-10% change in key inputs on the selected metric.

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Investor outlook

These views translate the scenario into valuation, pricing position, and cost structure over time. Benchmarks are illustrative and intended for diligence discussions.

Projected valuation (USD bn)

Premiums vs market (PMPM)

Fixed vs variable costs (monthly)

Variable costs include broker and admin components; acquisition spend is not shown here.

Cash balance (p50)

Median cash balance over time, including pre-launch burn and member-driven recovery.

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